Simplified Scenario Planning

The part of the overall process which is radically different from most other forms of long-range planning is the central section, the actual production of the scenarios. Even this, though, is relatively simple, at its most basic level. As derived from the approach most commonly used by Shell, it follows six steps:

  1. Decide drivers for change/assumptions
  2. Bring drivers together into a viable framework
  3. Produce 7-9 initial mini-scenarios
  4. Reduce to 2-3 scenarios
  5. Draft the scenarios
  6. Identify the issues arising


NB: There has been next to no research carried out on scenario planning.  How does one know that the correct scenarios have been chosen in the first place?


2 thoughts on “Simplified Scenario Planning

  1. Hi Lesley, thanks for the link and the question. I’ve looked at the site and sure there are opportunities there to undertake scenario planning, but my point was that given that scenario planning takes many years to run through a full cycle, there is very little research of the success or otherwise of the full process. I think the Shell example is one of the few.

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